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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd